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Since entering the league in 2016, Dak Prescott has become one of the more polarizing figures in all of professional sports. While a certain level of scrutiny is to be expected from the national media for any Cowboys quarterback; there is also a large portion of his own fan base that questions his talent and overall ability to win a championship. His decision making, accuracy, and other facets of his game have all been called into question on numerous occasions, so today we question the validity of these critiques and take a look at the facts.

Is Prescott accurate?

A common narrative amongst many of Prescott’s detractors is that he is not an accurate enough passer for the Cowboys to win a Super Bowl; this however is not a true statement. Over the course of Dak’s 85 game stint as the Cowboy’s signal caller he has posted a career completion percentage of 66.6. Amazingly this puts Dak as the fifth most accurate quarterback in NFL history.

Prescott has a higher career completion percentage than quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes, Kurt Warner, and Tom Brady. While I am not insinuating that Dak is a better quarterback than any of them it does show he is proficient distributor of the football. He also boasts a career 2.86 touchdown to interception ratio which would place him 6th all time.

Prescott also managed to break the Cowboys’ single season passing touch down record this past season with 37 touchdowns. A feat that neither his Tony Romo or Troy Aikman have accomplished. For perspective since entering the league in 2016 Dak Prescott is tied for 9th most passing touchdowns in the league over that time frame with 143.

The notion that Prescott is not an accurate passer is not supported by the numbers or analytics and should no longer be treated as fact or discussed.

Can Prescott beat winning teams?

Football is the ultimate team sport. One player generally does not decide the outcome of a game and quarterback wins are a poor way of evaluating their performance. A quarterback can play amazing and their team can still lose or they could be abysmal and their team still finds a way to win the game. With that said Prescott has been one of the most winningest quarterbacks in the league since his arrival. Prescott has a career 53-32 record, giving Dak the 4th most wins in the league since 2016. While these numbers are impressive as a whole his biggest critique is his perceived inability to beat teams with winning records. Against teams that finished the season over .500, Prescott has a career record of 18-24 which is only a 42.8 win percentage. While some point to this as a flaw it is actually the norm in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Deshaun Watson all have losing records against winning teams. All of these quarterbacks are still viewed as stars and their short comings are never used to discredit their talent.

Can the Cowboys win #6 with Prescott?

Prescott is currently on pace to finish his career as the Cowboy’s all time leader in yards, completion percentage, and passing touchdowns barring injury. He is talented enough for the Cowboys to win a championship with but quarterback talent alone has never been the sole factor in winning. Dan Marino, who is considered one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, retired without ever winning a Super Bowl while players like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson were able to capture the elusive title. It takes a complete team effort and honestly a little luck to win a championship but Prescott is more than capable.

The Cowboys have a young team, a VERY young team. In fact for the first time in his career Prescott is older than every receiver, tight end, and running back currently on the roster. This overall lack of experience should be alarming for any fan expecting the Cowboys to capture their elusive 6th title. The last two Super Bowls have been won by veteran teams such as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Los Angeles Rams, who added the lion’s share of their core contributors through free agency. While the Cowboy’s still have an opportunity to add veteran players to upgrade their roster, Jerry Jones seems to have put his faith in the young guys, drafted and undrafted alike. During the interview that he gave today, 6/18/2022, Jones directly speaks on the youth of this year’ team and his expectations that the draft picks and undrafted players will contribute. This train of thought will be what undermines the Cowboy’s season.

Growing Pains

Their is a gap in level of play between college football and the NFL that is not fathomable. The speed, intensity, and the strength of opposing players is often overwhelming to young players entering the league. There in lies the problem in expecting contributions from first year players. It may take a season or two before they become accustomed to the NFL level of play. Trevon Diggs’ first year in the league is a perfect example. In just 11 games Diggs allowed 5 touchdowns, 667 yards, and an 85.8 passer rating when targeted. While Diggs bounced back and had a historic season intercepting the ball it took him time to transition from a liability to a player who could contribute on a winning team. There are exceptions to the rules such as Micah Parsons but players like that very rarely come along. To add to that many of the players Jones is referring to are not as talented as Diggs or Parsons. Both players had first round grades coming out of college (Diggs falling to the 2nd was one of the biggest surprises of that year’s draft); Jones stated he expected UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS to contribute. The gap in talent between first round talents and guys who are competing just to make the team is night and day.

Undrafted Players Barely make the Team, Rarely Contribute to Super Bowls

70 percent of every player in the league was a draft selection. Only 30 percent of the league is comprised of undrafted free agents and an even smaller percentage actually plays any meaningful reps. With training camp still pending it is hard to believe Jerry Jones is rational in his assessment that “College Free Agents” as he calls them, will contribute when most will probably not make the team. The only expectation for an undrafted rookie should be that they find a way to make the roster or the practice squad. Anything further is unrealistic a majority of the time.

What to expect from the rookies?

Managing expectations for the rookie class is important. While there are prospects with potential there is no guarantee they will be ready to contribute their first year. For example Jalen Tolbert should be expected to make a couple plays and nothing more. With the departure of Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson and the injury to Michael Gallup it is highly likely Jalen Tolbert will receive a considerable amount of playing time. Even with him being forced into action the expectations shouldn’t be that he’ll top 1000 yards or reach double digit touchdowns. The only expectation for a rookie player should be to get on the field, incrementally improve week to week, and occasionally make a play for the team. Entrusting players with no experience with the faith of your season instead of acquiring veterans is unprecedented and will leave the Cowboys short of their ultimate goal.

The Cowboys are in desperate need of a linebacker. Since the departure of pro bowl linebacker Jaylon Smith, the Cowboys have struggled to find a suitable replacement to man the middle of their vaunted defense. The Cowboys defense finished 16th in total run defense last year was run off the field in their playoff matchup against the 49ers, surrendering 169 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. While the Cowboys are banking on the development of defensive tackles Osa Odighizuwa and Neville Gallimore to fortify the middle of the defensive line; a serviceable linebacker will still be needed to snuff out any runs that make it to the second level. While the Cowboys do have an all-pro in Micah Parson, he has now solidified himself as one of the best pass rushers in football, meaning he will be relied on to get to the quarterback and not playing traditional linebacker. The rest of the Cowboys linebacking core consists of players who are either currently or often injured or rookies with no experience at the NFL level. Luckily for the Cowboys there are still several linebackers available who can come in and make an instant impact for this team.

1. Anthony Barr

Anthony Barr is a baller. He is one of the rare linebackers who can play the run and cover at an elite level. While he is currently 30 years old, he can still provide a veteran presence and quality play. In 11 games last year Anthony Barr accounted for 72 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and a career high 3 interceptions. When he is healthy, the former 4-time pro bowler is still one of the best in the business, but injuries as of late have been problem. He only played 2 games in 2020 due to Covid and torn pectoral muscle and in 2021 he was hampered by a knee injury that he played through all season. Even so Anthony Barr would be the best pure linebacker on the Cowboys roster if he were signed.

• Dont’a Hightower

The lifelong Patriot still has some thread left on the tires. While not the coverage player that Anthony Barr is he is still one of the premiere linebackers in run support and play recognition. In 15 games last season he posted 64 tackles and 1.5 sacks. Hightower also provides championship pedigree, having started on three Super Bowl winning defenses. He rarely misses prolonged periods of time due to injury and he has one of the higher football IQs amongst linebackers.

• Anthony Hitchens

The former Cowboy would be a perfect fit back in the Blue and Silver. Hitchens is a consistent presence in the middle of the defense, coming off a season where he racked up 80 tackles, an interception, and two passes defended. While he is several seasons removed from his 135 tackles break out performance, he is still a good linebacker who excels in run support and gap fit.

Honorable Mentions: Kwon Alexander

The youngest guy on this list at only 27 years of age. Kwon is an exception coverage linebacker. For his career he has 8 interceptions and 32 pass deflections, numbers that some defensive backs have failed to post. He also has value as a part time pass rusher with a respectable 12 career sacks. The issue however is he is a complete liability in the run game. Alexander has the athletic ability to get to the point of contact however he is a very poor tackler who often misses tackles all together or fails to get the runner on the ground. For a Cowboy’s team that already struggles against the run his addition would not add the needed support that the Cowboys need to fortify their anemic run defense. Unless Dan Quinn can coach him into an improved tackler he would be the last of the listed linebackers I would personally recommend.

If the Cowboys want to improve their linebacker room, there are several prime candidates available that would be an upgrade over most of the players currently on the roster. With cap space to spare and a defensive coordinator in Dan Quinn who has already proved he can maximize a player’s talents; it is up to the Cowboy’s front office to get players into the building who can make a difference.

The misuse of the most explosive player on the roster.

Tony Pollard is an electric player with the ball in his hands. His highlight plays from last season had many fans calling for the 3^rd year player from Memphis to take Ezekiel Elliot’s job as the starting running back. While his play will never be enough to supplant the bell cow Elliot, it has earned him the opportunity to see increased snaps by moving to the slot position. The sad part of this situation however, is that Pollard should have been the Cowboys primary slot receiver the moment he was drafted out of Memphis.

1. More experience as receiver and returner: If you go back and look at Pollards tape at Memphis, you will see something surprising. He RARELY actually lined up as running back. In three years, Pollard played 40 total games, but he ended his career with only 106 career rushing attempts. That translates to under 3 rushing attempts a game (2.65 to be exact). He spent most of his time as a return specialist and was considered one of if not the best in the NCAA. Pollard ended his career with 7 total return touchdowns which tied the FBS all-time record. Even as a receiver he proved more effective than he ever did as a running back posting 12 career receiving touchdowns to only 6 career rushing touchdowns. Pollard’s biggest strength has always been his elusiveness in the open field with the ball in his hand. Playing the slot would give Pollard more of these opportunities.

• Pollard is not great at pass blocking. Normally pass blocking for a running back is a secondary concern but in Dallas it is vital for the offense’s overall success. The Cowboys offensive line ranked 23^rd as a unit in pass block win rate. Their struggles in the trenches led directly to drive killing holding calls and negative plays. With the leaky nature of the front-line Ezekiel Elliot’s presence as a premier pass blocking back was needed. Tony Pollard does not have the frame or size to consistently take the punishment of blocking defensive ends and defensive tackles. Elliot provides the experience and size needed for blitz pick up that Pollard lacks.

• Lack of explosiveness at wide receiver. The Cowboys have had an exceptionally good receiving core over the years, however the one thing they have lacked is a consistent home run threat. Pollard has the speed and vision to turn a routine slant route into a touchdown thanks to his speed, athleticism, and experience as a kick returner. He is explosive enough to make opposing defenses account for him and his alignment on every play. While Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb were a deadly tandem when still together but neither consistently got behind the defense. The departures of Cooper and Cedrick Wilson means that the Cowboys will have even less size and route running on the field so adding a player who has the athleticism that Pollard has into the lineup will remedy some of the production lost. Pollard posted a blistering 4.38 40 time at his pro day and has was clocked at reaching 21.17 mph during his 58 yard touchdown against the Saints. While Pollard is capable of creating explosive plays in the running game his potential as a big play receiver is to obvious to overlook.

I appreciate you all for tapping in with me. We are here to take a deep dive into Cowboys football. Numbers, analytics, advanced stats, roster and personnel. No feelings all facts. We’ll also be using analytics to make high percentage wagers over the course of the season. Thanks for stopping by and stay tuned in.